This is a MEMA update for Hurricane Lee. There is increasing confidence that Maine will have impacts from Lee beginning Friday due in part to a westward shift in the storm track and widening storm radius. Information is provided by NWS Caribou and Gray and the National Hurricane Center.
- The storm has finally begun its northward turn and is forecast to accelerate its forward speed as it slowly weakens to a Category 1 storm.
- The onset of tropical storm winds is forecast to occur Friday night to early Saturday morning.
- There is still much uncertainty with the forecast, but currently Lee is forecast to make landfall early Sunday morning as a tropical storm in far eastern Maine.
- Tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding and high surf, and riverine flooding are all possible impacts from the storm.
- Flash flooding threat:
- Prior to the onset of Lee, parts of coastal Maine may receive up to 1” of rainfall that will saturate soils and enhance flood risk for the weekend.
- Wind threat:
- The greatest chance of tropical storm force winds are across the coast. Winds could be southerly or northerly depending on the final storm track. Leaves on trees and pre-saturated ground will enhance damage potential.
- Tropical storm force winds are sustained surface winds ranging from 39 to 73 miles per hour. Strongest winds may occur in eastern Washington County.
- High surf/coastal flooding threat
- Very uncertain and dependent on the final storm track.
- There is coastal erosion potential with Friday/Saturday high tides as Lee approaches.
- High tides occur at 12:12 AM and 12:31 PM Saturday for Eastport ME.
- NHC identifies Cape Cod Bay MA as being the highest risk for storm surge, but there is still risk for coastal flooding in Maine from Lee. Anywhere there are onshore winds will be a risk for storm surge, and on a further west track that could occur in Maine.
- Additional impacts from Lee are still uncertain.
- Lee will be a large storm with impacts expected well beyond the center of the exact track.
- NHC forecasts a tropical storm wind radius of 250-350 miles for Lee, which would span the coast of Maine and span into adjacent states and Canadian provinces.
- NHC is therefore recommending use of “earliest reasonable arrival” to determine wind onset.
- Currently the forecast storm track passes through eastern Washington County, a shift of ~80 miles west compared to yesterday’s track forecast.
- USGS stream gage monitoring team will be in the field making high flow measurements and making sure data are continually recorded on the web if stations go down.
